Four games are usually far too early to write off contenders in the Premier League. Yet in 2026-27, Arsenal and Manchester City have surged ahead with perfect records, leaving the chasing pack playing catch-up. The question now: is this already a two-horse title race?


The top two’s flawless starts

Only Arsenal and Manchester City sit on 12 points from four matches, already four clear of third-placed Hull City and five ahead of the rest. The defending champions, Arsenal, opened with a commanding 3-0 Community Shield win over City and have followed with league victories against Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland, plus a Champions League success over Napoli. They’re on a nine-game league winning run stretching back to last season and have not lost inside 90 minutes since April 19.


Manchester City, meanwhile, have navigated life after Pep Guardiola under new boss Enzo Maresca. After the Community Shield setback in Cardiff, they’ve won all four league fixtures—against Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Coventry and a controversial 1-0 derby success at Manchester United, where Erling Haaland’s winner stood despite a later admission of an offside error by the referees’ body.


Underlying numbers: efficient, not dominant

Despite the maximum points, the metrics suggest control rather than crush. Both top two have scored eight goals, fewer than Brighton (13) and Chelsea (10). In shots taken they rank 10th (Arsenal) and 11th (City), while touches in the opposition box sit sixth and fifth. Where they truly separate themselves is at the back: Arsenal have conceded once and City twice, two of the division’s tightest defences.


The big four’s shaky foundations

Pre-season favourites Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham have all stumbled to varying degrees.

  • Chelsea (5th, 7 points) have scored 10 but conceded nine, the fourth-worst defence, and have allowed two or more goals in each of their first four league games for the first time since 2015-16.
  • Liverpool (7th, 6 points) are unbeaten but have drawn three of four, marking only the third time in 63 seasons they’ve failed to win either of their first two home league matches.
  • Manchester United (13th, 4 points) have matched their worst-ever Premier League start since 1992-93. They lead the league in shots (84) and have the second-fewest shots conceded (41), yet have scored and conceded seven apiece.bbc+1
  • Tottenham (17th, 2 points) are enduring a historic low: the first time in club history they’ve failed to score in their first four league games.bbc+1


What history says about early leaders

Early perfection does not guarantee a title. Across English top-flight history, 80 teams have won their first four league games; only 24 went on to lift the trophy. In the Premier League era, nine of 28 sides starting 4-0 have become champions, most recently Manchester City in 2023-24.


Crucially, overcoming a five-point (or more) deficit after four games is rare. Only two clubs have done it: Manchester United five times under Sir Alex Ferguson (1992-93, 1996-97, 1998-99, 2007-08, 2008-09) and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City in 2020-21. With Arsenal and City already five points ahead of most rivals, the margin for error for the chasing pack is vanishingly small.


Verdict: a two-team race in the making?

It’s only four games, but the gap is real. Arsenal and Manchester City combine defensive solidity with timely winning, while traditional contenders wrestle with new managers, leaky defences and historic slumps. Unless the chasing pack stabilises quickly, this season could tighten into a familiar duel at the summit.